Top 10 House “Incumbent” Primaries

The top 10 races featuring incumbents (ranked based on vulnerability):

1. Young (AK) – Young is being hit by scandal and a large part of his campaign war chest is going toward attorney fees.  While it is a three-way primary race, the biggest threat is Lt. Gov. Parnell, who has been endorsed by popular Gov. Palin.  Should Parnell win and defeat Young, then expect this seat to become less likely for a Democratic pickup. Outlook: Young loses.

2. Broun (GA) – This is a battle between who is more conservative, similar to one lost by Cannon in Utah.  Broun defeated the establishment candidate in a special election.  Many attribute this victory to cross-over Democratic voters from more liberal areas, such as Athens.  Fleming is more of a “nut” than Broun and the cross-over appeal voters will not be able to rescue Broun this round.  Outlook: Broun loses.

3. Jefferson (LA) – He has been scandal plagued for eternity.  Even with scandal, Jefferson has managed to prevail in the past.  A crowded primary would be considered beneficial to him.  However, at a time when incumbents on both sides are being thrown out or retiring “voluntarily” there is no doubt that Jefferson is in trouble.  Outlook: Jefferson loses.

4. Towns (NY) – In 2006 he barely survived a three way challenge.  Kevin Powell is a charismatic public speaker and could hardly be considered a divisive figure, unlike Towns closest 2006 competitor, NYC Councilman Charles Barron.  Labor unions, a strong political force in Brooklyn, will most likely target Towns for defeat.  His support for Clinton over Obama is another issue that was not received well in his majority African American district.  Should this remain a two way race then Towns could be in serious trouble.  Outlook: Too Close to Call.  

5. Kilpatrick (MI) – Detroit is souring over the Kilpatricks, more the son than the mother.  Had she simply run as Carolyn Cheeks she would be safer.  A three-way primary benefits Kilpatrick, yet Waters is viewed as the more serious candidate and Scott as a mere placement candidate meant to split votes.  Coincidentally, Kilpatrick defeated a fellow incumbent in a 1996 primary to win this seat.  That fellow Democrat now serves on the Detroit City Council, the same group that has been battling her son.  Deja-vu has returned.  Kilpatrick is in deep trouble.  Outlook: Too Close to Call.

6. Cohen (TN) – He represents a majority African-American district, yet he is Jewish and white.  He is being challenged by Tinker, an African-American who is supported by some religious leaders who believe that only a fellow African-American can represent other African-Americans (a joke at best).  A crowded primary with fellow African-Americans, including Tinker, assisted Cohen in winning this seat last election.  Most polls show Cohen with a decent favorability rating and he endorsed Obama early on.  However, Tinker has sufficient funds to make this race competitive.  Outlook: Leans Cohen.

7. Barrow (GA) – This is another district that is a little less than 50% African-American.  Barrow is a conservative Southern Democrat.  His opponent is State Senator Thomas.  She is more of a liberal Southern Democrat, yet also African-American.  A low turount benefits Barrow.  He also has proven a winning streak against challenging Republicans.  Outlook: Likely Barrow.

8. Lamborn (CO) – This is a three-way primary that was expected to be a two-way primary between “wacko” Lamborn and whoever polled best between Crank and Rayburn.  Polls indicated Crank performed best against Lamborn, yet Rayburn decided that any deal made between him and Crank was not valid.  As a result, a three-way primary continues to exist.  This is not only a conservative district, yet also a military district and Lamborn can tout his seat on the Armed Services.  A seat there does indeed matter here.  Unlike Musgrave, Lamborn has also maintained a lower profile.  Outlook: Likely Lamborn.

9. Blackburn (TN) – Big Oil’s darling is having her conservative credentials questioned.  While Leatherwood has a struggle on his hands in defeating Blackburn, he has managed to catch her off guard for the time being.  Blackburn has started to go on the defensive, not a position where any incumbent is considered safe.  Outlook: Blackburn Favored.

10. David Davis (TN) – Davis is a freshman facing two opponents from 2006.  Roe is the more challenging of the two, he is a mayor, physician, and veteran (executive, health care, and military experience).  Not a bad mix for a conservative district. Outlook: Safe Davis.

Primary Dates:

7/15: Georgia

8/5: Michigan

8/7: Tennessee

8/12: Colorado

8/26: Alaska

9/6: Louisiana

9/9: New York